Buy-to-let flourishes in credit crunch
Buy-to-let flourishes in credit crunch
4wallsandaceiling.com Newsletter
Source The Telegraph, Emma Thelwell
Nick Says…
For what it’s worth I think this piece of writing really nails what is going to happen over the next 12 months, within the UK property world.
The killer piece is the last paragraph.
Casualties of the tougher lending criteria applied to mortgages are expected to fall into the welcoming arms of buy-to-let landlords - who could see rental income climb as much as 14pc this year, according to estate agents Knight Frank.
Despite a slew of warnings earlier this year that Britain's love-affair with buy-to-let property could meet a grisly end, with overstretched landlords defaulting on their mortgagees, the market has been healthier than expected as the number of mortgage approvals drop and people turn to renting.
Liam Bailey, head of research at Knight Frank, said: "Buy-to-let activity has remained high, confounding many of the more pessimistic economic commentators, and in many markets investment activity has risen to record levels."
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The news follows the Council of Mortgage Lender's announcement that it expects buy-to-let demand to be the least affected group amid the weakening housing market growth. Buy-to-let will be helped by a fall in the number of people able to secure a mortgage as lenders become more choosy about who they lend to and how much.
Lending figures from the Bank of England this week revealed that new mortgage approvals fell to a two-year low last month.
The CML forecast a 15pc drop in house sales next year, warning that first-time buyers and home movers would be the worst hit. However, their misfortune is likely to strengthen tenant demand and keep rents buoyant.
Property in prime areas of central London, such as Notting Hill and Chelsea, are expected to see rents rise 14pc this year, and a further 9pc in 2008, according to Knight Frank. Overall, the agent sees UK rents rising by 7pc in 2007, and 6pc next year.
The CML said it expects interest rates to fall by 5pc by the middle of next year, which would substantially improve rates of return for investors.
It also pointed out that investor demand may be encouraged by the proposed changes to the capital gains tax rules - a cut in the rate from 40pc to 18pc from next April. However, these changes may push some smaller landlords to realising gains made in recent years.
The CML's report, written by its economists Jim Cunningham and Paul Samter, said: "Although we are relatively optimistic for buy-to-let purchases, a weaker outcome is possible if potential investors expect a weaker prospect for house prices or if the credit crunch continues for longer than we have factored in and restricts the capacity of lenders to serve this market."
Along with the CML, Knight Frank predicted a fall in sales volumes - down 12pc in 2008 - although it still expects average prices in the UK to rise by 6pc this year and 3pc next.
The CML said: "A lack of supply will remain an important factor underpinning prices, but this may not be sufficient to prevent prices from falling modestly in some areas and for some types of property."
Mr Bailey added: "Our current view is that the UK market is likely to enter a weaker phase. The next 12 months will feel a lot like late 2004 and early 2005; a period when price growth slowed to low single digit levels, and more importantly a period when buyers looking to strike deals were met by over-ambitious vendors."





